BCA Research Chief Strategist Marko Papic warns that Iran represents a significantly underpriced risk to global oil supplies compared to Venezuela, where tensions are easing through US-led negotiations. As of January 9, 2026, Brent crude trades around $62 per barrel despite these dynamics, with Papic forecasting prices above $70 by year-end driven by OPEC discipline and Middle East uncertainties.

Venezuela Deal Advances

The Trump administration announced a "Reconstruction Deal" securing 30-50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, valued at $2-2.8 billion, following Nicolás Maduro's extradition to US custody on January 3. Chevron is in talks for an expanded license, signaling US firms' return to the Orinoco Belt, while Russia and China's influence wanes as volumes redirect from their refiners. Papic expects minimal market disruption here, as neither side benefits from escalation.

Iran Protests Intensify

Anti-government protests have spread to over 100 cities across all 31 provinces since late December 2025, fueled by economic woes, with at least 39-45 deaths and 2,000+ arrests reported by human rights groups. Security forces face accusations of live fire and hospital raids, amid nationwide internet blackouts and Supreme Leader Khamenei's calls for dialogue. President Trump warned of US intervention if peaceful protesters are harmed, heightening fears of supply disruptions from Iran's 2 million bpd exports.

US Strategic Commodity Pivot

Papic highlights a US policy shift viewing oil as a strategic asset, exemplified by direct Venezuelan supply seizures to undercut adversaries like China. This "Energy Dominance" approach could pressure OPEC+ and reshape global flows, with Saudi fiscal needs limiting output cuts. Markets underprice Iran's risks, given its larger export volume versus Venezuela's diminished capacity.